How Can Gwin win?
Gwin’s overall hopes were deflated in Lenzerheide to the point where the title is almost out of reach but if anyone in modern downhill can do it, it’s Aaron Gwin. He currently sits 253 points behind Minnaar meaning Minnaar can miss a race and still have a lead over him.
One thing we do know is that Gwin has the pace though as he showed in Leogang and Lenzerheide. It’s going to take a miracle for Gwin to win but we’ve no doubt he’ll have Troy on the calculator in the hotseat in Val di Sole.
How can Troy win?
Brosnan’s best hope is to get two perfect races and score himself the maximum 500 points- no easy feat with how hard Gwin, Hart and Minnaar are charging each round. This will force Minnaar to aim for at least fourth place and decent qualifiers. As soon as Brosnan drops points to Minnaar, it starts to become a lot harder to chase him down.
A win is worth 40 points more than a second but then it’s only a drop of 20 points to third, a further 15 to third and then increments of 10 from there. In essence, if you aren’t on the top three steps you start to loose ground fast – probably a good reason why Minnaar is out ahead as the only repeat winner this year.
We’re definitely not counting Brosnan out though, if Minnaar’s form starts to dip 160 points will fade quickly. As the underdog, Brosnan can also go for full attack mode. If he starts to chip away at that lead in Mont Sainte Anne he would be piling a lot of pressure onto the South African and setting up a very interesting finale.